Global Perspectives - Antonia Colibasanu

The reactions of countries in Central and Eastern Europe to the potential consequences of the Ukraine crisis are restrained by the relationships between more powerful entities – namely, by the dynamics of EU-Russia, NATO-Russia and U.S.-Russia relations. The EU cannot afford to implement meaningful sanctions after Russia’s intervention in Crimea. In the Common Declaration of… » read more

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Posted by Antonia Colibasanu

Besides the Ukraine crisis, there are several few other important events that should be discussed in Europe these days. Here’s my list at the end of this week. Italian banks: Two major Italian banks, UniCredit and Monte dei Paschi di Siena, announced significant losses during the final quarter of 2013. It’s important to look into… » read more

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Posted by Antonia Colibasanu

Watching Ukraine

The situation in Ukraine has become critical. As events unfold and the flow of information increases, here is a Stratfor-inspired guide to assessing what is important: While it is hard to establish where violence is coming from, its perpetrators have tactical gains in mind, such as “buying up time” or “disturbing momentum.” Therefore it is… » read more

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Posted by Antonia Colibasanu

On the Edges of the EU

Ukraine has drawn a great deal of international coverage this month. The events in Ukraine in many ways illustrate broader geopolitical trends unfolding in the region. During the past few weeks, Germany has shown an assertive stance, supporting opposition groups and protesters in Kiev to Russia’s apparent irritation. Berlin’s moves in Ukraine accompany calls by… » read more

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In his book “The Next Decade – where we’ve been and where we’re going”, George Friedman said that “In the next decade, the most desirable option with Iran is going to be delivered through a move that now (2010) seems inconceivable. It is the option chosen by Roosevelt and Nixon when they faced seemingly impossible… » read more

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The foreign ministers of Russia, China and India met Nov. 10 on the sidelines of the Asia-Europe Meeting. The ministers talked about terrorism, Afghanistan and the Middle East, and they discussed coordinating their positions for the upcoming WTO meeting in Bali. The media has offered scant coverage of the summit. News of a meeting between… » read more

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Last time I wrote, I was wondering whether an intervention in Syria is possible. It turns out that it was not. As Stratfor forecast at the beginning of the year, the Syrian chemical weapons issue turned out being the wild card that would challenge the U.S. policy of restraint, which has been defined by the… » read more

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The United States has started building the case for a military intervention in Syria, and Stratfor believes that the decision to intervene will be made soon. On Aug. 26 U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry started Washington’s public relations campaign for the intervention by describing videos of children suffering from the al Assad regime’s chemical… » read more

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Posted by Antonia Colibasanu