July 3, 2013
During the few last days, the events in Egypt have dominated the media attention worldwide. Stratfor found that just a few minutes ago Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi has been reportedly isolated and transferred to a Defense Ministry site, even if this is yet unconfirmed. If the army indeed has taken action, this is a military coup, as Essam el-Haddad, a Morsi aid, posted on his facebook earlier.
There are reports that the military is being deployed at locations that have been known to be centers of pro-Morsi support by the Muslim Brotherhood. There have also been pictures circulating on social media websites of APCs (Armed Personnel Carriers) and tanks moving into the area around Cairo University in Giza, where gunmen clashed with MB supporters late last night, killing approximately 16 people. Al Ahram also reported that the military has deployed at Rabaa al-adawiya mosque, which has essentially served as the nerve center for the MB’s pro Morsi protests.
This comes after Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi in a speech early July 3, called on the military to abandon the 48-hour ultimatum it set for him to end the unrest currently sweeping the country or deal with a possible military intervention, offering to reshuffle his cabinet and form an interim coalition government. Morsi’s calculus was that even though the army has set a deadline, it is unlikely that the military will have the nerve to remove Egypt’s first democratically elected president.
However, this seems to be a turning point in the situation – where the coup might be indeed underway. BUT, as Stratfor points out:
If indeed the military removes Morsi, it will face serious challenges in putting together a transitional authority inclusive of all sides, as the military stated was its desire. The Muslim Brotherhood, having waited so long to establish itself openly in politics, is likely going to engage in civil resistance, which will lead to violence if these preliminary indications of a coup come to fruition.