Worrisome news from Gaza

Posted by Antonia Colibasanu on 15/11/12
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Worrisome news – central Israel is now under rocket fire for the first time since Saddam Hussein launched scud missiles into Tel Aviv during the first Gulf War. This follows a spike in Israeli airstrikes over the Gaza Strip in the last 12 hours.

As news is breaking on what’s going on on the ground, a lot of questions come to mind – from what are the next moves considering what’s going on in the troubled Middle East region to how the greater powers US, Russia and EU countries will react?

But until then… tactical news: two projectiles, which Stratfor believes to be Fajr-5 rockets due to their range, landed near Tel Aviv — one just south of the municipal line and one in the water just outside of the southern suburb of Bat Yam. No injuries have been reported.

Also interesting – Egyptian delegation will visit Gaza tomorrow (Nov. 16) while the US is asking Egypt to “use its sway with the Palestinians to try to end the violence from Gaza”.

Europeans are still quiet – it’s night time (don’t doubt that for some, a long night). There were however some voices heard on Israel’s Operation Pillar of Defense that can give some insight into how the European countries will react. Russia as well – and this is an interesting country to follow on the matter in particular given that at the moment, Moscow is reassessing is reassessing relationships with many countries in the Middle East and South Asia.

An interesting day to follow tomorrow – and Stratfor is having “Red Alert” updates in case anyone wants to follow what’s going on “live”.

 

One Response to Worrisome news from Gaza »»

  1. Comment by Ari Rusila | 2012/11/16 at 13:07:51

    I have two worries related to current Gaza offensive:

    1) Hamas is closing the window of opportunity which was opened this autumn when one of the most powerful men in modern Arab political affairs, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani visited in Gaza. Besides Qatar head of state also Sheikh Al Khalifa, Bahrain’s ruler, was preparing his own trip to the Gaza Strip. By these visits Hamas could increase its credibility as political actor even as negotiation partner with Israel.

    2) Some of rocket fire might have been fired from Sinai, Egypt. This is not yet confirmed but if so and if the fire continues, so how will Israel respond, what are the consequences for Israel-Egypt cooperation and peace agreement.

    What is the scenario of further development? I guess that Israel will continue air strikes but I don’t believe that these can destroy all the capabilities of Hamas’ long and short range rocket forces nor Hamas’ command and control system; also part of 1200 smuggling tunnels could survive. The Hamas leaders go again underground so targets disappear. To achieve aims of Pilar of Defense Israel probably must start phase three and that means ground offensive ala Cast Lead II. It might be very short but anyway wide international cry will start about war crimes, humanitarian crisis etc. After this mess all are in square one again. The other scenario could be possible if Hamas leadership addmitts having miscalculated Israeli response and make another strategic choice by starting serous negotiations with Israel.

    P.S: More in my article” Hamas Miscalculated: Israel Started Operation Pillar of Defense”
    http://arirusila.wordpress.com/2012/11/15/hamas-miscalculated-israel-started-operation-pillar-of-defense/


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Every day, events occur that influence the state of the world. This blog comments on what's important, breaking down international news and raising questions to analyze their potential effects on global markets and politics. more.



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